Beef prices are anticipated to continue their upward trend in 2026 but at a slower pace compared to recent years. According to Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph in Ontario, while the prices are not expected to decrease, the rate of increase will be less significant. The surge in beef prices, which escalated by 16% over the past year and 35% higher than the five-year average in October, is primarily driven by the imbalance of supply and demand. Factors such as dwindling cattle supply, heightened consumer demand, and various external influences like international trade and weather conditions contribute to the escalating prices.
In 2025, meat prices, particularly beef, experienced the most substantial increase among all food categories, as reported by Dalhousie University. The enduring high demand for beef is attributed to its significance in Canadian food culture and the preference for protein-rich diets among consumers. Despite the soaring prices, shoppers have not significantly reduced their beef consumption, with some opting for more affordable cuts instead.
The ongoing challenges faced by ranchers include the declining cattle population in Canada, aggravated by severe droughts in Western Canada. The scarcity of cattle has driven up feed prices, along with other operational costs, leading to a decrease in herd size. Ranchers are grappling with crucial decisions on whether to sell their cattle at high prices or retain them for breeding, which could temporarily exacerbate retail prices. The long reproductive cycle of cattle poses a challenge for herd rebuilding efforts, especially amid uncertainties like drought conditions.
External factors, including trade policies and disease threats, also influence beef prices in Canada. The closure of beef plants in the U.S. and the impact of diseases like New World screwworm pose risks to cattle producers. The strong demand for Canadian beef attracts imports, while exports cater to international markets with varying preferences for specific cuts. Experts project that beef prices will persist at elevated levels until at least 2027, with modest improvements anticipated as the supply chain stabilizes.
Despite the complexities within the industry and the prolonged herd rebuilding process, consumer demand for beef remains robust. The resilience of the market indicates that beef prices are unlikely to see a significant reduction in the near future.
