National home sales decreased by 10.7% in November compared to the same period last year, indicating a stagnant market trend heading into 2026, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In November, a total of 33,895 properties were sold across the country, with a slight 0.6% decline from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The average national sale price for a home in November stood at $682,219, showing a 2% decrease from the previous year.
Senior economist Shaun Cathcart from CREA mentioned that some sellers are adjusting prices to facilitate deals before the end of 2025, following a mid-year surge. The recent announcement by the Bank of Canada affirming that interest rates are unlikely to improve further could motivate fixed-rate borrowers, leading to an anticipated rise in activity next year.
Bank of Canada maintained its key rate at 2.25% last week, with projections for it to remain stable for most of the upcoming year. This decision aims to strike a balance between inflation and economic growth. The downward trend in interest rates, which started in June 2024, is expected to cease, following a series of rate cuts this year.
CREA’s home price index, reflecting typical home sales, witnessed a 0.4% decrease from October to November and a 3.7% decline year-over-year. Despite this, some experts doubt an imminent market turnaround. NerdWallet Canada representative Clay Jarvis suggested that factors beyond interest rates are constraining Canadian homebuyers, such as persistent inflation impacting savings and down payments.
Real estate broker Marco Pedri from Toronto expressed skepticism regarding an immediate demand recovery, citing concerns over tariffs, job market instability, and economic uncertainties. He foresees a gradual market stabilization without significant improvements until late 2026 or even into 2027.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi highlighted that oversupply in British Columbia and Ontario may continue to exert downward pressure on home prices, while tighter markets in other regions could drive price increases. Despite a slight dip in November, sales have shown a positive trend in six of the last eight months, indicating potential growth fueled by pent-up demand in specific provinces and improved job markets next year.
The report also noted a 1.6% decrease in new listings from the previous month, with a total of 173,000 properties listed for sale nationwide at the end of November, representing an 8.5% increase from the previous year but 2.5% below the long-term average for that period.
