Hurricane Melissa, an exceptionally powerful storm in the Caribbean, is expected to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday after experiencing a rapid intensification, a phenomenon increasingly linked to severe storms in the region. Initially a tropical storm on Saturday, Melissa’s wind speeds surged from 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour in less than a day by Sunday. By Monday morning, it had escalated to a Category 5 hurricane, marking one of the swiftest intensifications witnessed in the Caribbean.
By Monday afternoon, the storm’s winds had peaked at 281 kilometers per hour, making it the most potent storm globally in 2025 according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Due to its slow movement, Melissa poses significant danger, as noted by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the U.K.’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading.
The storm has already claimed six lives across the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for what could be its most severe hurricane catastrophe. Areas in the country may experience up to a meter of rainfall, as projected by the NHC. Last year, Hurricane Beryl struck the southern part of Jamaica, resulting in approximately $200 million in losses, equivalent to 1.1% of the country’s GDP.
Deoras attributes Melissa’s strength to elevated ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, exceeding normal levels by two to three degrees. Tropical storms draw energy from this warm water layer, enabling Melissa to intensify rapidly as it moved slowly through the region over the weekend.
Global ocean warming is becoming more prevalent, impacting climate patterns worldwide. An extensive heatwave in the Pacific Ocean has led to unusual temperatures in North America this fall. Last year marked the highest global average sea surface temperatures on record.
According to Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of hot ocean temperatures that fueled Melissa, making them 500 to 700 times more probable. Climate Central’s analysis also suggests that climate change has boosted Melissa’s top wind speed by approximately 16 km/h, potentially increasing its damage costs by 50%.
Winkley highlights that four of this season’s five hurricanes have undergone rapid intensification, a trend more prevalent now compared to previous decades. This occurrence is now observed at least once every season, if not more frequently.
