The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its prediction for home sales in 2026, as new data indicates a slight increase in the number of homes sold in June compared to the previous month. Rising oil prices have led to inflation, raising concerns about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. This scenario caused fixed mortgage rates to rise earlier this year due to increased bond yields.
Although these factors have somewhat eased, CREA states that they have still impacted the housing market in recent months, along with a quicker decline in Canada’s population than expected. Consequently, the national sales forecast for 2026 has been slightly downgraded, reflecting a slow start to the anticipated market recovery.
Initially forecasting a modest rise in home sales for 2026, CREA now anticipates a 1.4% decrease compared to 2025. This revision marks another adjustment to the 2026 forecast, following a previous downgrade in April. June data revealed a 0.5% increase in national home sales from the previous month, with a 0.9% growth compared to June 2025.
Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, noted that this positive trend in June built on the market’s momentum from May, indicating a gradual stabilization. The MLS home price index reported a benchmark price of $657,700 for homes in the last month. While prices in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta continued to decline regionally, the rate of decline has been diminishing, suggesting nationwide price stabilization.
Cathcart highlighted that the Ontario and B.C. markets are projected to see slight improvements by year-end, while regions such as the Prairies and Quebec are experiencing a slowdown. With home prices steadying and interest rates remaining relatively unchanged recently, prospective buyers may be encouraged to enter the market.
