Prediction markets, a rapidly expanding sector of financial technology enabling users to bet on real-world events, are set to be accessible to Canadian retail investors through Wealthsimple this summer. The Toronto-based online financial services firm is currently beta testing a new app called Wealthsimple Predict, which will grant clients the opportunity to engage with event contracts via the U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi.
This move comes after Canadian regulators granted limited approval for trading in prediction markets associated with economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends, excluding sports, elections, or pop culture. Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and chief product officer of Wealthsimple, highlighted the significance of prediction markets in the global financial landscape, describing them as the fastest-growing segment.
Operating similarly to financial exchanges, prediction markets allow users to participate in event contracts, which are essentially straightforward wagers on the outcomes of real-world events. Previously, Canadians faced restricted access to prediction markets due to lack of broad regulatory approval for retail trading, prompting some to utilize VPN services to bypass geographical restrictions.
Wealthsimple aims to educate users on the essential risks involved in these trades, emphasizing the potential for complete loss of invested funds. Notably, Kalshi and Polymarket, the prominent players in the prediction market domain, have witnessed remarkable growth over the past two years. Reports indicate that the top five prediction markets saw approximately $100 million US in bets in 2024, with Kalshi and Polymarket collectively achieving a monthly global trading volume of around $24 billion as of April 2026.
Kalshi has particularly thrived on sports-related bets, which reportedly constitute about 90% of its trading fees. Moreover, the platform’s integration into news coverage with major media outlets like CNN has further boosted its business. Polymarket, on the other hand, has gained visibility through partnerships featuring odds and predictions during events like the Golden Globes, mentions by comedian Trevor Noah, and coverage by 60 Minutes on CBS News.
In addition to sports, popular prediction market categories on Kalshi and Polymarket encompass pop culture, politics, international conflicts, cryptocurrency, scientific advancements, economic indicators, financial markets, and climate-related events. However, Wealthsimple’s users will be limited to trading in economic indicators, financial markets, and climate events due to regulatory constraints in Canada. The company plans to offer access to nearly 4,000 event contracts on Kalshi’s platform upon the launch of its prediction markets app.
Andrew Kim, a psychology professor and gambling expert at Toronto Metropolitan University, believes that the exclusion of sports events and pop culture from approved prediction market categories in Canada is a positive development. He anticipates limited appeal for gamblers without these options, suggesting that most sports bettors may not engage in these markets for an extended period.
While some experts acknowledge the potential benefits of prediction markets, such as revealing insights from collective investor wisdom, concerns persist regarding vulnerabilities to insider trading. Notably, there have been instances of suspicious trades on prediction markets, including a controversial bet made on the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early 2026. A U.S. special forces soldier faced allegations of using classified information to place a winning bet on Polymarket, securing over $400,000 US.
Overall, the introduction of prediction markets to Canadian retail investors through Wealthsimple represents a significant development in the financial technology landscape, offering new avenues for participation in real-world event betting within regulatory boundaries.
