After a year and a half of Canadians avoiding trips to the U.S., some are starting to travel south again. Statistics Canada’s latest data reveals that Canadian return trips from the U.S. in June rose by 3.2% compared to the same period last year, marking the third consecutive month of growth. The increase was primarily driven by more Canadians returning via car, with a 5.2% uptick, while air travel saw a 3.8% decline.
However, the rise in car travel does not indicate a return to normal levels of U.S. travel by Canadians. Despite the positive trend, the tourism industry may not see a significant boost in the near future. Last month’s Canadian return travel from the U.S. was still down by 28.7% compared to June 2024 when tensions like the trade war and annexation threats led to Canadians canceling their U.S. travel plans.
Wayne Smith, director of Toronto Metropolitan University’s Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research, views the recent uptick as a step towards normalizing travel to the U.S. rather than a complete shift in travel behavior. He believes that the current rate of Canadian travel to the U.S. represents a new normal, considering the sustained decrease in Canadian visitors over the past year and a half.
Kristy Kennedy, VP of marketing and operations at the North Country Chamber of Commerce, notes that local businesses near the Quebec border in New York State have observed a slight increase in Canadian travelers. Kennedy mentions that more Canadians have been seen in the area, indicating a potential resurgence in cross-border travel.
Amir Eylon, president of Longwoods International, suggests that promotional campaigns, such as discounts and favorable exchange rates, may have contributed to the recent rise in cross-border travel. Factors like increased airfare costs and the World Cup co-hosted by Canada, the U.S., and Mexico could have also influenced travel decisions by Canadians heading to the U.S.
Despite the cautious optimism in the tourism industry due to three consecutive months of growth in cross-border travel, some experts like Smith remain skeptical about a significant tourism revival. Smith highlights that the increase in car travel is not equivalent to air travel, which typically brings in higher-spending and longer-staying visitors. Furthermore, the weak Canadian dollar and evolving travel preferences pose challenges for the U.S. in attracting Canadian tourists back in significant numbers.
